Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at REGIONALS
decks
2
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
7-4-3
overall winrate
60.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.5%
avg ELO +2.3 per match
expected value
54.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1286
· median 1286
· range 1232–1340
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1178
Q3 1364
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 23.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.8% | +4.3 |
| Fire Erupting | 11.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.7% | +10.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 7.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -2.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.8% | +5.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.5% | -14.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.8% | -5.0 |
| Rogue | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
